Q3 GDP numbers at the moment: Will the financial system spring a shock?

by akoloy

All eyes at the moment will probably be on the approaching GDP numbers for the third (October-December) quarter of the present monetary yr, scheduled to be launched later within the day.

The numbers come amid rising hope that the economy might have slowly turned the nook after having shrunk sharply in the course of the previous two quarters.

It could also be recalled right here that the Indian financial system witnessed GDP de-growth of 24 per cent and seven.5 per cent, respectively, throughout Q1 and Q2.

In view of falling Covid caseload and rising public spending, analysts anticipate GDP to be again in black in October-December.

Some like DBS Bank see development in Q3 turning optimistic at round 1.3 per cent. This compares to the (-)7.5 per cent print in the course of the earlier quarter (Q2). Economists in a Bloomberg survey, however, predicted a Q3 development of 0.5 per % in comparison with a yr in the past.

As for the full-year quantity, it’s being seen at round a unfavorable 6.8 per cent in actual phrases.

Meanwhile, January enterprise exercise within the financial system more and more confirmed indications of constructing a rousing comeback after the protracted pandemic lull.

Services exercise rose for the fourth month on run in January, whereas manufacturing unit exercise additionally continues to increase. Exports too rose in January, driving on sectors similar to engineering items, gems and jewellery, iron ore and textiles.

Car gross sales, a key indicator of demand, jumped 11.4% in January yr on yr.

This yr’s Economic Survey forecasts the financial system to register a 11 per cent rise in FY22. The RBI sees India rising at 10.5 per cent throughout the identical interval, whereas the IMF expects India to develop at 11.5 per cent in 2021.

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